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Fourth-seeded Wisconsin tries to avoid upset against Wofford

by Eitan Horwitz | March 17th, 2010

Call me crazy, but I’m pretty sure Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan won’t use the term “March Madness” while his team gets ready to play Wofford in the first round of the NCAA Tournament this Friday.

When you’re the fourth-seeded team playing a thirteen seed out of the Southern Conference, madness is about the last thing you want to occur.

To avoid becoming the victim of such insanity, Coach Ryan hopes to capitalize on the Badger’s preferred style of play: Use up the shot clock, limit turnovers, get to the free throw line and play good defense. If all those components are present on Friday, the Badgers will likely secure 40 more minutes of win-or-go home basketball in the next round.

However, there’s also the Mr. Hyde version of the Badger team we saw against Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament. In the first half of that matchup, the Badgers shot a paltry 18.2%. Cold shooting streaks like the one in Indianapolis will likely spell one-and-done against a surging team like Wofford. The Terriers enter the tournament on a 13-game winning streak and finished as their conference regular and tournament champs.

Statistically, the Terriers (26-8) and Badgers (23-8) bring very similar resumes to the table. On offense, the Badgers average 67.5 points per game on 44.4% shooting while Wofford posts 69.4 points per game on 44.1% shooting. Both have impressive assist-to-turnover (A/T) ratios with the Badgers boasting the nation’s 7th best A/T ratio at 1.44 and the Terriers a bit behind at 1.14.

Defensively, both teams hold their opponents to 41.8 percent shooting from the field. It is each team’s defensive mindset that fuels their success. Wisconsin, who is 4th in the nation in scoring defense at 56.2 points per game, is slightly better in this regard.

“I expect the game to be in the 60s or low 50s because both teams are so good defensively” said Mark Byington, assistant coach for the College of Charleston, one of Wofford’s conference rivals.

While defense could be the great equalizer on Friday, the Badgers could also come out shooting lights out. Back in the middle of the season, the Badgers were doing just that. However, in recent games, the Badgers have been like a box of chocolate: you never know what you’re going to get.

Though nothing is for certain for either team, here are a few things to watch for in Friday’s game.

Can the Badgers outwork the Terriers?

The trio of Jon Leuer, Jason Bohannon and Trevon Hughes might prove too much for the Terriers. (AP Photo)

Think the Badgers lacked height in the front-court? Wofford does not have a player over 6’6 in their starting lineup. However, Davidson assistant coach Jim Fox says two players in particular, forwards Noah Dahlman and Tim Johnson, “make a formidable pair on the boards.” If the Badgers (who for once have a size advantage) can stay active on the boards, it will lead to the all-important second-chance points that demoralize defenses.

Will the Badgers do their bounce back routine?
After seven regular-season losses, the Badgers have bounced back after each loss, winning their following contest. Wisconsin was the only Big Ten team to avoid losing consecutive games this season. The Badgers have not played since their loss to Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals.

Will Trevon Hughes’ anemic shooting continue?
Hughes is a streaky shooter. It’s a well-known fact. However, a key to the Badgers success is for Hughes’ hot and cold streaks to come at the right times. Ideally, Hughes will shoot exceptionally throughout. Realistically, the Badgers are hoping Hughes’ scoring bunches come at critical times, and that he will not shoot the Badgers out of the game when he’s not on.

Is this Noah Dahlman’s time to shine?
Dahlman is the only Wofford player averaging in double figures at 16.8 points per game. As the lifeblood of the Terriers offense as well as reigning Southern Conference Player of the Year, Dahlman’s shoulders are accustomed to carrying a team. For the Terriers to win, Dahlman will at least need to reach his average point total. It wouldn’t hurt if he put up a career performance Friday in Jacksonville.

Can Wisconsin avoid the drought?
Yes, Wofford’s defense is good, but this game is about Wisconsin’s offense. If Wisconsin can avoid the infamous scoring drought that debilitated them against Illinois (and was subsequently outdone by Purdue), they are in good shape.

Prediction

In a classic battle of David and Goliath (UW has an enrollment of 41,219 while only 1,160 attend Wofford), it would be tempting to throw away rankings and go with the underdog. However, the Badgers’ resiliency after losses bodes well for them against Wofford. In the 58-54 loss against Illinois, Wisconsin proved that they can hang tough even when they’re not shooting well (28.6%). That’s the sign of a veteran basketball team. Wofford will play stout defense for twenty minutes, but the Badgers will eventually prevail due to F Jon Leuer’s size advantage inside. Final Score: Wisconsin 63 Wofford 55.

Eitan Horwitz is a Staff OP/ED writer for BadgerChatters.com.

You can find more of Eitan's articles on the Examiner.com.

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